Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev nce nqi roj Crude ntawm Takeout Clear Food Container Industry

Taw qhia

Nqa tawmtshem cov thawv ntim khoom noj, ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam khoom noj khoom haus niaj hnub no, tab tom ntsib kev nyuaj siab uas tsis tau muaj dua los ntawm lawv cov qauv nqi. Nyob rau lub Peb Hlis 2026, nce kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm thaj chaw hauv Middle East ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv loj hauv cov nqi roj av thoob ntiaj teb. Brent roj av tau nce los ntawm ze li ntawm 18.5%, thaum WTI cov roj av yav tom ntej tau nce siab dua 30%, nce mus txog $ 118.78 ib chim- qib siab tshaj txij thaum Lub Rau Hli 2022. Qhov no zoo li qhov teeb meem hluav taws xob nyob deb, txawm li cas los xij, cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau tus nqi ntawm txhua lub thawv ntim khoom uas peb siv txhua hnub los ntawm txoj kev lag luam sib txuas sib txuas.

Nqa tawmtshem cov thawv ntim khoom nojFeem ntau yog tsim los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv yas xws li Polypropylene (PP), Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET), thiab Polystyrene (PS). Ntawm cov no, PP dominates nrog kwv yees li 55% kev ua lag luam sib koom vim nws cov cua sov zoo heev thiab tus nqi qis, thaum PET tau nce nws qhov kev nkag mus rau hauv cov khoom ntim khoom noj khoom haus zoo tshaj plaws rau 28%, uas tau tsav los ntawm nws cov pob tshab zoo dua. Kev tsim cov ntaub ntawv yas no yog nyob ntawm cov khoom siv petrochemical. Txhua qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi roj av thaum kawg qhia txog tus nqi khoom kawg ntawm cov khoom sib kis: Cov Roj Crude → Naphtha → Olefins → Yas Resins.

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm no muab kev soj ntsuam qhov tob hauv - ntawm qhov kev cuam tshuam zoo ntawm kev nce nqi roj crude ntawm kev nqa tawmntshiab lub thawv zaub movkev lag luam. Nws tshuaj xyuas cov txheej txheem sib kis ntawm cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw, kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom tiav, cov nqi thauj mus los, thiab kev nqis peev ntawm cov cuab yeej tsim khoom, nthuav tawm tag nrho cov teebmeem ntawm lub zog no cuam tshuam rau tag nrho cov nqi saw. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kuj muaj cov lus pom zoo rau cov neeg muaj feem cuam tshuam txog kev lag luam.

I. Kev cuam tshuam ncaj qha ntawm kev nce nqi roj Crude rau cov nqi raw khoom rau cov khoom ntim khoom noj

1.1 Kev kub ntxhov hnyav hauv cov khoom siv yas raw khoom

Qhov nce ntawm cov nqi roj av, xa mus los ntawm cov saw hlau petrochemical, tau cuam tshuam rau cov khoom siv tseem ceeb uas siv hauv cov thawv ntim khoom. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam, rau txhua txhua $ 10 toj ib chim nce ntawm cov nqi roj av, cov nqi tsim cov yas resin nce li ntawm RMB 300-500 ib metric ton. Qhov kev sib kis no tau raug lees paub tiav hauv lub Peb Hlis 2026 kev ua lag luam kev ua lag luam, nrog tus nqi nruab nrab rau cov khoom siv yas xws li PE, PP, thiab PVC hauv Suav teb nce 12%, thiab cov tub ntxhais ntau yam xws li LLDPE thiab Polypropylene pom kev nce siab tshaj 10.7%.

Tus nqi nce tau tshwm sim txawv ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb uas siv rau cov thawv ntim khoom noj ntshiab:

1.2 Kev soj ntsuam ntawm Cov Khoom Noj Khoom Noj Kom Zoo Tshaj Plaws Kev Lag Luam

Kev sib kis ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom nce ntxiv rau cov thawv ntim khoom kom meej raws li txoj hauv kev lag luam ntshiab: Roj Crude → Naphtha → Monomers (Ethylene, propylene, Styrene) → Yas (PE, PP, PS, ABS). Txhua qhov txuas hauv cov saw txuas txuas no suav nrog tus nqi- ntxiv rau qhov cuam tshuam, ua kom cov roj crude tsis hloov pauv ntawm txhua theem.

Nyob rau hauv no kis tau tus mob saw, naphtha, ib tug ncaj qha khoom ntawm crude roj refining, ua hauj lwm raws li ib tug tseem ceeb node rau tag nrho cov plastics kev lag luam. Naphtha suav txog ntau dua 60% ntawm cov nqi tsim khoom ethylene. Thaum lub Strait of Hormuz ntsib kev cuam tshuam, txwv kev xa tawm naphtha los ntawm Middle East, Northeast Asian cov neeg yuav khoom raug yuam kom los ntawm lwm tus neeg muag khoom ntawm tus nqi hwm, ncaj qha tsav cov nqi rau cov tshuaj petrochemical xws li ethylene thiab propylene.

Ethylene thiab propylene, cov tseem ceeb monomers rau kev tsim cov yas, muaj cov nqi hloov pauv uas ncaj qha txiav txim siab cov nqi ntawm cov khoom yas qis. Cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg muaj txiaj ntsig zoo sib xws nrog cov nqi roj av. Cov nqi roj nce ncaj qha nce lawv cov nqi tsim khoom. Txawm li cas los xij, nrog kev rov qab qeeb qeeb hauv qab kawg - cov neeg siv xav tau, cov tuam txhab tawm tsam kom dhau lub nra tag nrho los ntawm cov saw hlau, ua rau cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho.

Nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias ntau yam yas sib txawv muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov rhiab heev rau cov nqi roj av. Raws li kev txheeb cais, cov roj crude tso nyiaj ntau dua 70% ntawm tus nqi ntawm polyethylene (PE) thiab polypropylene (PP). Hauv qhov sib piv, lwm cov yas zoo li PVC, vim muaj cov txheej txheem ntau lawm, muaj qhov qis dua rau cov nqi roj av. Piv txwv li, PVC ua los ntawm cov txheej txheem calcium carbide muaj cov nqi feem ntau nyob ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob thiab hluav taws xob, tsis muaj qhov txuas ncaj qha rau cov nqi roj thoob ntiaj teb.

1.3 Amplifying Effects of Geopolitical Factors

Tshaj li tus nqi sib kis, lub Peb Hlis 2026 nce siab ntawm cov khoom siv yas raw khoom tau nthuav dav los ntawm geopolitical yam tseem ceeb. Lub Middle East, raws li lub ntiaj teb lub zog hub, vam khom rau ntawm Strait of Hormuz- tswj los ntawm Iran- rau kwv yees li 30% ntawm lub ntiaj teb no seaborne kev lag luam roj. Thaum txoj kev dej tseem ceeb no ntsib kev pheej hmoo, qhov tsis zoo ntawm lub ntiaj teb cov roj xa hluav taws xob tau tshwm sim tam sim ntawd.

Raws li kev txheeb xyuas kev lag luam, qhov nce ntxiv hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas -Iran tsis sib haum xeeb cuam tshuam rau PE / PP kev ua lag luam los ntawm peb txoj hauv kev: tus nqi xa mus, kev cuam tshuam kev xa khoom, thiab kev xav zoo tshaj. Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev xa khoom yog qhov tseem ceeb. Ze li ntawm 200 lub nkoj nkoj tau congested nyob ze ntawm Strait ntawm Hormuz, nrog ntau tshaj li ib nrab ntawm lub ntiaj teb no lub saum toj kaum lub tuam txhab shipping rerouting nkoj. Qhov no ua rau muaj kev nruj rau cov khoom siv tseem ceeb xws li naphtha thiab ethylene.

Sentiment premium ntxiv amplified nqi volatility. Cov neeg koom nrog kev lag luam kev txhawj xeeb txog kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau ua rau muaj kev ntshai kev yuav khoom thiab kev coj tus cwj pwm. Cov yam tsis sib haum xeeb no ua rau cov khoom siv yas raw khoom tus nqi nce siab tshaj qhov loj ntawm qhov tseeb los ntawm tus nqi nce. Cov tuam txhab xa khoom xws li CMA CGM ncaj qha rau "kev sib cav sib ceg thaum muaj xwm txheej ceev," ntxiv $ 2,000 txog $ 4,000 rau ib lub thawv, cov nqi kawg dhau mus rau cov khoom siv yas yas.

II. Kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev nce nqi roj Crude rau cov khoom tiav nqi rau cov khoom ntim ntshiab

2.1 Cov Kev Lag Luam Hauv Cov Khoom Siv Ua tiav rau Cov Khoom Siv Kom Zoo

Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev nce nqi roj crude ntawm cov khoom noj khoom haus tiav tiav cov khoom noj khoom haus tau nthuav tawm cov txiaj ntsig kev sib kis. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam, kev lag luam qhov hnyav nruab nrab ex- Hoobkas nqi tsev hauv 2025 yog RMB 2.86 toj ib chav, nce 5.5% los ntawm RMB 2.71 toj ib chav nyob rau xyoo 2024. Qhov no qhia txog kev lag luam sib piv rau cov khoom lag luam nrog tus nqi ntxiv, xws li siab -barrier, khawb- tsim, resistant.

Tus nqi hloov pauv nthuav tawm cov yam ntxwv ntawm cov khoom sib txawv:

2.2 Lub Sijhawm Lag Luam Hauv Tus Nqi Xa Khoom

Muaj ib lub sij hawm tseem ceeb ntawm cov nqi roj av nce ntxiv thiab cov khoom noj khoom haus tiav cov nqi hloov pauv. Raws li kev txheeb xyuas kev lag luam, cov txheej txheem sib kis no feem ntau xav tau 1-3 lub hlis. Qhov kev lag luam no tshwm sim los ntawm ntau yam:

• Ua ntej,kev ruaj ntseg buffering. Cov tuam txhab tsim khoom feem ntau khaws cov khoom lag luam raw khoom, uas tuaj yeem cuam tshuam ib ntus cuam tshuam ntawm tus nqi nce. Qee lub tuam txhab tau npaj kwv yees li ib hlis tus nqi ntawm cov khoom muag ua ntej tus nqi nce siab kom ua tiav cov lus txib uas twb muaj lawm. Lub tswv yim khoom muag no yuav cov tuam txhab muaj txiaj ntsig hloov lub sijhawm.
• Thib ob,kev cog lus txwv. Ntau lub tuam txhab muaj sijhawm ntev - daim ntawv cog lus nrog cov neeg siv khoom. Cov ntawv cog lus no feem ntau muaj cov nqe lus hloov kho tus nqi uas qhia txog cov xwm txheej thiab cov txheej txheem rau kev hloov tus nqi. Cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav tsum sib tham nrog cov neeg siv khoom thiab ua kev hloov kho nyob rau hauv cov ntawv cog lus, cov txheej txheem yuav siv sij hawm.
• Peb,kev sib tw ua lag luam. Hauv kev sib tw ua lag luam ib puag ncig, tuam txhab lag luam tsis tuaj yeem tam sim dhau tag nrho cov nqi nce rau cov neeg siv khoom. Lawv yuav tsum xav txog yam xws li kev sib koom ua lag luam thiab kev lees txais cov neeg siv khoom. Cov tuam txhab feem ntau tau txais cov tswv yim nce nqi nce ntxiv, nqus cov nqi siab los ntawm kev hloov kho ntxiv ntau dua.

2.3 Variations nyob rau hauv tus nqi kis tau tus mob hla txawv daim ntawv thov scenarios

Kev sib kis ntawm tus nqi roj crude nce kom tshem tawm cov nqi ntim khoom sib txawv ntawm qhov sib txawv ntawm daim ntawv thov scenarios. Raws li kev tshawb fawb txog kev lag luam, cov xwm txheej tseem ceeb ntawm cov ntawv thov suav nrog kev xa zaub mov, noj mov hauv tsev noj mov -hauv, ntim khoom noj, thiab khw muag khoom yooj yim. Txhua qhov xwm txheej nthuav tawm cov nqi sib txawv thiab cov txheej txheem sib kis.

Qhov xwm txheej xa zaub mov yog tus nqi tshaj -sensitive. Vim muaj kev sib tw hnyav hauv kev ua lag luam khoom noj khoom haus, platform commissions thiab tus nqi xa khoom twb tau siv ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm cov nyiaj tau los. Kev nce hauv cov nqi ntim khoom yog qhov nyuaj kom dhau mus rau cov neeg siv khoom. Raws li ib tus tswv tsev noj mov tau sau tseg, thaum tus nqi ntawm cov thawv nqa khoom tau nce los ntawm RMB 0.50 toj ib chav, noj mov -hauv cov nqi nqa tawm tsuas yog nce los ntawm RMB 2.00, tab sis tib pluas noj ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj ncaj qha los ntawm RMB 5.00. Raws li tus tswv tau hais tias, "Yog tias kuv tsis nce nqi, kuv tsuas tuaj yeem txhawb nqa kev lag luam." Qhov kev sib txawv ntawm tus nqi sib txawv no qhia txog cov nqi sib txawv ntawm cov xwm txheej sib txawv.

Tus nqi kis tau tus mob hauv tsev noj mov noj- nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej takeaway yog qhov nruab nrab. Cov neeg siv khoom yog tus nqi qis dua -sensitive rau noj hmo- hauv kev ntim khoom. Cov lag luam tuaj yeem nqus tau cov nqi los ntawm kev muab lawv tso rau hauv cov nqi noj mov lossis los ntawm kev them tus nqi sib txawv RMB 0.5-1.0 ntim rau ib qho kev txiav txim. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov lag luam tuaj yeem txhawb nqa cov tswv yim xws li "zaub mov- tshwj xeeb" los txhawb rau ntawm -kev siv hauv tsev, txo qis kev siv ib qho -siv ntim.

Lub khw muag khoom yooj yim khw muag khoom scenario nthuav tawm cov nqi sib kis tau yooj yim tshaj plaws. Cov khoom lag luam hauv cov channel no feem ntau xav tau kev ntim khoom txaus nyiam thiab kev txhawb nqa lub npe, nrog rau kev xav tau zoo dua. Cov lag luam tuaj yeem cuam tshuam ib feem ntawm cov nqi raw khoom nce los ntawm kev hloov khoom dua tshiab, ntim kev tsim kho tshiab, thiab txhim kho cov txiaj ntsig zoo.

III. Cascading cuam tshuam ntawm kev nce nqi roj Crude ntawm cov nqi cuam tshuam

3.1 Kev nce nqi ntau hauv kev thauj mus los thiab kev thauj mus los

Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev nce nqi roj av rau kev thauj mus los thiab cov nqi thauj khoom yog tam sim thiab ncaj qha. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam, cov nqi roj suav txog kwv yees li 30% ntawm tag nrho cov nqi khiav lag luam rau cov tuam txhab logistics thiab tsheb thauj mus los. Qhov nce ntawm 15% ntawm cov nqi roj ua rau kwv yees li 4.5% nce hauv cov tuam txhab xa khoom cov nqi tsheb thauj mus los. Qhov kev nce nqi no yog kis mus rau tus nqi kawg ntawm cov khoom ntim ntshiab ntawm ntau txoj kev.

Ua ntej, kev nce nqi ntawm kev thauj mus los hauv hiav txwv. Vim muaj kev cuam tshuam nyob ze ntawm Strait of Hormuz, cov nkoj raug yuam kom rov qab mus ncig ntawm Cape of Good Hope, ntxiv 10-14 hnub rau lub sijhawm caij nkoj thiab ob npaug nqi thauj khoom. Cov kab xa khoom loj xws li MSC thiab Maersk tau tshaj tawm tus nqi nce ntxiv, nrog rau Tebchaws Europe- cov nqi thauj khoom tau nce los ntawm $ 2,140 ib TEU mus txog $ 2,640 ib TEU. Rau cov tuam txhab nyob ntawm cov khoom siv raw los yog cov khoom xa tawm, cov nqi no nce ntau heev.

Qhov thib ob, nce nqi tsheb thauj mus los. Rau lub tsheb thauj khoom loj uas nqa tag nrho cov load ntawm 50 tons, cov nqi roj ib 100 kilometers nce li ntawm RMB 4.4 vim cov nqi roj ntau dua. Ntawm 470-kilometer pob tw txoj kev los ntawm Nanyang mus rau Luohe, cov nqi roj tau nce los ntawm RMB 720-750 rau RMB 1,050, nce ntau dua 40%. Tus nqi nce ncaj qha cuam tshuam rau ob qho khoom siv raw khoom thiab cov nqi xa khoom tiav.

Thib peb, nce nqi freight huab cua. Txawm hais tias cov thawv ntim khoom thauj khoom feem ntau yog thauj los ntawm hiav txwv thiab txoj kev, kev thauj khoom huab cua tseem tsim nyog rau kev txiav txim sai lossis siab - cov khoom muaj nqis. Kev nce nqi roj thoob ntiaj teb ncaj qha nce dav hlau cov nqi roj, nce nqi tsheb thauj mus los tau zoo.

Cov nqi logistics nce ntxiv ua rau lwm qhov cuam tshuam cascading. Nrog rau cov nqi tsheb thauj mus los ntau dua, cov tuam txhab yuav tsum rov ntsuam xyuas lawv cov kev teeb tsa cov khoom siv, xav txog cov tswv yim xws li cov khoom siv hauv zos thiab tsim cov chaw faib khoom hauv cheeb tsam. Tsis tas li ntawd, ncua sij hawm thauj mus los yuam cov tuam txhab kom nce kev nyab xeeb cov khoom lag luam, ntxiv cov khoom lag luam nqa cov nqi ntxiv.

3.2 Kev hloov pauv ntawm cov cuab yeej tsim khoom lag luam thiab cov nqi kho mob

Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev nce nqi roj av ntawm cov khoom siv ntau lawm tshwm sim nyob rau hauv peb qhov chaw: cov nqi khoom siv, cov nqi siv hluav taws xob, thiab cov nqi tu.

Hais txog cov nqi khoom siv, cov cuab yeej tsim khoom rau cov thawv ntim khoom siv feem ntau suav nrog cov tshuab txhaj tshuaj molding, thermoforming tshuab, thiab tshuab moulding tshuab. Kev tsim khoom ntawm cov cuab yeej no yuav tsum muaj cov hlau, yas, thiab lwm yam ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb, tag nrho cov uas muaj nqi sib raug zoo nrog cov roj av. Tsis tas li ntawd, ntau lub tshuab siab -kawg tau raug xa tawm, ua rau lawv muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi pauv thiab nce nqi tsheb thauj mus los, ntxiv rau kev tsav tsheb nce nqi.

Hais txog cov nqi siv hluav taws xob, kev ua cov yas yog lub zog- kev lag luam hnyav, yuav tsum muaj hluav taws xob ntau thiab cua sov thaum tsim khoom. Piv txwv li, kev txhaj tshuaj molding siv lub zog tseem ceeb. Thaum qee cov txheej txheem siab heev tuaj yeem txo cov khoom siv hluav taws xob los ntawm 30-60%, uas yuav txuag tau RMB 300,000-500,000 txhua xyoo hauv cov nqi hluav taws xob, cov nqi roj nce kuj nce nqi hluav taws xob, txo cov nqi hluav taws xob kom zoo dua.

Hais txog kev saib xyuas cov nqi, cov khoom siv xws li lubricants thiab hydraulic kua yog cov roj av derivatives. Kev nce nqi roj ncaj qha nce tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv no. Tsis tas li ntawd, raws li cov khoom siv khiav lag luam nce, cov tuam txhab tuaj yeem txuas cov cuab yeej siv lub neej, uas tuaj yeem ua rau tsis ua haujlwm ntau dua thiab cov nqi kho mob.

Qhov tseem ceeb, qee lub tuam txhab tau txais kev hloov kho thev naus laus zis los daws cov nqi hluav taws xob nce ntxiv. Cov kev ntsuas no suav nrog kev siv lub zog- cov cuab yeej siv tau zoo (servo motors, LED teeb pom kev zoo), siv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tauj dua tshiab (hnub ci, cua), thiab ua kom cov txheej txheem ntau lawm kom txo tau lub zog siv. Thaum xav tau kev nqis peev ua ntej, cov kev ntsuas no tuaj yeem txo cov nqi hluav taws xob ntev ntev -.

3.3 Ntxiv rau hauv Warehousing thiab Inventory nqi

Kev nce nqi roj crude cuam tshuam rau cov khoom lag luam thiab cov nqi khoom muag los ntawm ob txoj hauv kev: nce nqi zog rau cov chaw cia khoom thiab cov nqi peev ntau dua rau cov khoom muag.

Hais txog qhov chaw cia khoom siv hluav taws xob, khaws cia cov thawv ntim khoom kom huv si feem ntau xav tau qhov kub thiab txias -tswj ib puag ncig, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov khoom tshwj xeeb. Kev nce nqi roj nce tus nqi ntawm cov roj av, hluav taws xob, thiab lwm yam khoom siv hluav taws xob, ua kom nce nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam. Raws li kev lag luam cov ntaub ntawv, cov nqi hluav taws xob suav nrog 15-20% ntawm cov nqi khiav lag luam. Nrog rau 15% nce ntawm cov nqi roj, cov nqi no tuaj yeem nce 2-3 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus.

Hais txog cov nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam, kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw xav kom cov tuam txhab cog lus ntau dua cov peev txheej los tswj cov khoom lag luam ib txwm. Rau qhov nruab nrab - cov chaw tsim khoom loj uas tsim tau 10 lab ntim txhua hli nrog 30-hnub cov khoom siv raw khoom, 25% nce nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw yuav xav tau cov peev nyiaj ua haujlwm ntxiv uas muaj peev xwm ntau lab RMB.

Tsis tas li ntawd, nce cov khoom lag luam tsis paub tseeb ua rau cov tuam txhab tswj hwm kev nyab xeeb ntau dua los tiv thaiv kev cuam tshuam. Qhov xwm txheej uas ze li ntawm 200 lub nkoj nkoj tau congested nyob ze ntawm Strait of Hormuz ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog cov saw hlau ruaj khov, ncaj qha ua rau cov khoom muag nce ntxiv.

Cov nqi khoom muag nce ntxiv kuj pom tau tias muaj kev pheej hmoo ntau dua cov khoom muag. Nrog nce volatility nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv raw cov nqi, qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm cov khoom muag devaluation nce correspondingly. Yog tias cov tuam txhab txiav txim siab tsis ncaj ncees rau kev ua lag luam thiab yuav cov khoom loj ntawm cov nqi siab tshaj, cov nqi qis dua tuaj yeem ua rau poob loj. Yog li ntawd, cov tuam txhab xav tau kev tswj xyuas cov khoom muag ntau dua thiab muaj peev xwm kwv yees tus nqi.

IV. Cov qauv kev hloov kho thiab cov tswv yim teb thoob plaws hauv kev lag luam saw

4.1 Innovation hauv Corporate Cost Control Strategies

Tau ntsib nrog cov nqi siab los ntawm kev nce nqi roj av, cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv kev lag luam tshem tawm cov thawv ntim tau siv ntau cov tswv yim teb. Cov tswv yim no tuaj yeem raug sau tseg hauv peb-tiered logic: "Short-term Buffering, Mid-term Passing Through, Long-term Upgrading."

Rau luv luv -lub sij hawm buffering, tuam txhab uas muag feem ntau vam khom rau cov khoom muag thiab kev ntsuas tus nqi. Qee lub tuam txhab tau npaj kwv yees li ib lub hlis cov khoom muag ua ntej tus nqi nce siab kom ua tiav cov lus txib uas twb muaj lawm. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov tuam txhab lag luam nkag mus rau hauv ib nrab- daim ntawv cog lus muab khoom txhua xyoo nrog cov neeg muag khoom, kaw cov nqi hauv qhov chaw ruaj khov. Piv txwv li, ib lub tuam txhab hauv Dongguan tau ua tiav cov nqi hauv qhov kev lees paub los ntawm cov ntawv cog lus zoo li no. Thaum lub tswv yim no yuav tsum muaj peev txheej ua haujlwm ntau dua, nws yuav cov tuam txhab muaj txiaj ntsig hloov sijhawm.

Nyob rau nruab nrab - lub sij hawm dhau mus, cov tuam txhab nquag sib txuas lus nrog cov neeg siv khoom, sib koom cov nqi sib tham los ntawm kev sib tham. Rau kev txiav txim tshiab, tuam txhab lag luam suav nrog tus nqi nce ntxiv rau kev tawm dag zog. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov tuam txhab ua kom zoo dua cov khoom sib xyaw, ua kom muaj feem ntau ntawm -tus nqi- ntxiv cov khoom, txhim kho lawv lub peev xwm los ntawm kev nce nqi los ntawm kev hloov khoom dua tshiab.

Rau kev hloov kho tshiab mus ntev -, cov tuam txhab nce peev hauv kev tsim kho thev naus laus zis thiab kev tsim khoom. Los ntawm kev tsim kho cov yas los yog cov khoom siv sib xyaw los hloov cov ntaub ntawv ib txwm muaj, lawv txhim kho cov khoom ua tau zoo thiab ntxiv tus nqi. Piv txwv li, qee lub tuam txhab tab tom tsim biodegradable ntshiab ntim. Thaum tam sim no kim dua, cov khoom no ua raws li ib puag ncig kev xav thiab muab kev cia siab rau kev lag luam.

Tsis tas li ntawd, cov tuam txhab tau txo cov nqi los ntawm kev muab cov saw hlau ua kom zoo. Qhov no suav nrog kev tsim kom ntev ntev - kev sib raug zoo nrog cov neeg muag khoom raw khoom, kev yuav khoom ntau rau tus nqi zoo dua, thiab siv cov cuab yeej digital rau kev kwv yees qhov xav tau thiab kev tswj cov khoom muag. Qee lub tuam txhab tseem tab tom tshawb nrhiav cov tswv yim tsim khoom hauv zos, txo cov kev cia siab ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom kom txo nqi tsheb thauj mus los thiab kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev sib pauv.

4.2 Kev Txhim Kho Lub Sijhawm Rau Lwm Cov Khoom Siv

Kev nce nqi roj crude tam sim no unprecedented lub sij hawm rau txoj kev loj hlob ntawm lwm yam ntaub ntawv. Bio-raws li cov ntaub ntawv, raws li ib qho tseem ceeb hloov pauv rau roj av-raws li plastics, yog ceev ceev kaw tus nqi sib txawv.

PLA (Polylactic Acid), uas tseem ceeb tshaj plaws bio-raws li cov ntaub ntawv, twb tau pom qhov txo nqi tseem ceeb. Cov nqi tsev rau PLA tau txo los ntawm kwv yees li RMB 28,000 ib metric tuj hauv 2018 rau RMB 19,000 ib metric ton hauv 2024, txo qis ntawm 32%. Kev kwv yees qhia tau hais tias los ntawm 2030, los ntawm kev tsim khoom loj thiab kev ua kom zoo, PLA cov nqi tuaj yeem poob rau RMB 14,000 ib metric ton, thiab PBAT rau RMB 13,000 ib metric ton, nqaim tus nqi sib txawv nrog cov khoom siv niaj hnub rau hauv 30%.

Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj, los ntawm kev xav txog tus nqi ntawm lub neej, bio-cov ntaub ntawv raws li muaj txiaj ntsig tshwj xeeb. Hauv -Kev tsom xam qhov tob ntawm PLA biodegradable ntim hauv cov khoom xa tuaj qhia tau hais tias, txawm hais tias tus nqi raw khoom siab dua, tag nrho cov nqi ntawm lub neej tuaj yeem qis dua cov roj av-raws li PP ntim. Thaum PLA ntim cov khoom siv raw cov nqi yog RMB 0.48 ib chav tsev, piv rau RMB 0.30 rau PP, thaum xav txog cov nqi qis xws li kev rov ua dua thiab pov tseg, cov nqi sib tw ua ntau dua.

V. Cov ntsiab lus thiab Outlook

5.1 Cov ntsiab lus ntawm qhov cuam tshuam

Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev nce nqi roj crude ntawm qhov kev lag luam clear takeout zaub mov ntim kev lag luam yog dav thiab deb - mus txog. Tsis muaj ntu ntawm cov saw muaj nuj nqis tiv thaiv kab mob -los ntawm cov nqi raw khoom mus rau cov khoom lag luam tiav, los ntawm kev thauj mus los rau cov khoom siv tsim khoom, los ntawm cov khoom muag khoom muag mus rau tag nrho kev lag luam ecosystem.

Hais txog cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw, rau txhua txhua $ 10 toj ib chim nce ntawm cov nqi roj av, cov nqi tsim khoom yas nce los ntawm RMB 300-500 ib metric ton. Nyob rau lub Peb Hlis 2026 tus nqi nce siab, tus nqi rau cov khoom tseem ceeb xws li PP thiab PET tau nce 25%. Tus nqi nce no yog kis tau sai heev los ntawm cov saw hlau: Roj Crude → Naphtha → Olefins → Yas Resins. Amplified los ntawm geopolitical yam, qhov tseeb tus nqi nce tshaj theoretical xam.

Hais txog tus nqi khoom tiav, kev lag luam qhov hnyav nruab nrab ex- Hoobkas nqi tau nce 5.5% hauv 2025, tab sis tus nqi xa tawm txawv heev nyob rau hauv daim ntawv thov scenarios. Qhov xwm txheej xa zaub mov feem ntau yog tus nqi-sensitive, ua raws li lub tsev noj mov noj mov- nyob rau hauv takeaway, nrog rau cov khw muag khoom yooj yim nthuav qhia qhov nyuaj tshaj plaws. Cov tuam txhab lag luam tau teb los ntawm kev maj mam nce tus nqi, kev hloov khoom dua tshiab, thiab tus nqi dhau los ntawm - los ntawm cov tswv yim, tseem muaj kev ntxhov siab tseem ceeb.

Hais txog cov nqi cuam tshuam, kev thauj mus los thiab kev thauj mus los tau pom tias qhov kev nce siab tshaj plaws, nrog rau cov nqi thauj khoom hauv hiav txwv ob npaug thiab cov nqi tsheb thauj mus los tau nce ntau dua 40%. Cov nqi siv hluav taws xob rau cov cuab yeej tsim khoom thiab cov nqi kho mob kuj tau nce raws li. Cov khoom lag luam thiab cov khoom muag tau nce tsis yog vim cov nqi hluav taws xob ntau dua, tab sis kuj yog vim muaj kev ruaj ntseg cov khoom lag luam nce ntxiv los ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsis paub tseeb.

5.2 Cov lus pom zoo rau cov neeg muaj feem cuam tshuam

Raws li kev txheeb xyuas saum toj no, peb muab cov lus pom zoo hauv qab no rau cov neeg muaj feem cuam tshuam hauv kev lag luam khoom noj khoom haus tshem tawm:

Kev lag luam khoom noj khoom haus tshem tawm ntshiab yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev hloov pauv thiab kev loj hlob. Thaum cov nqi roj av nce ntxiv ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam cov nqi tseem ceeb, lawv tseem ua rau kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis thiab kev hloov kho cov qauv. Tsuas yog cov tuam txhab muaj peev xwm hloov kho kom hloov pauv thiab txais kev hloov pauv tshiab yuav tuav lawv txoj kev sib tw hauv qhov kev hloov pauv no. Nrog rau kev loj hlob ntawm lwm cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis, kev txhawb nqa ntawm cov qauv kev lag luam ncig, thiab kev txhawb nqa ntawm cov txheej txheem tsim ntsuab, peb muaj laj thawj ntseeg tias kev lag luam ntim khoom noj khoom haus ntshiab yuav txav mus rau qhov muaj txiaj ntsig zoo dua qub, ib puag ncig zoo, thiab muaj txiaj ntsig yav tom ntej.